For cheap flights to Paris, it’s probably best to wait a bit more
In this column I like to concentrate on good news and bargains and such, but today I’m actually writing about the unfortunate fact that flights to Paris are weirdly expensive at the moment, and that it’s probably better to wait before booking a ticket for a fall trip there.
New York to Paris is one of the busiest international routes in the world, and it’s rare that prices are this high at this time of year. Right now it’ll cost almost $700 round-trip for the absolute cheapest flights, but really more like $800 to $900 for most dates, or even more. What’s the deal? We’ll discuss that below.
Why it’s best to wait until the end of a season to book
As I write this in early August, prices for flight to Paris even for September and October are very high, with fares over $800 being the best deal on most days. The good news is that these same flight in those months will be available for hundreds of dollars less, as long as you wait to book.
Right now the airlines are trying to fill every last summer seat to Paris, so they don’t have fare sales for the fall and won’t announce them for at least a couple more weeks. If you think about it this makes sense. Let’s say you were thinking about going to Paris sometime in the next three months, and the cheapest deal was around $800 for each of those three months.
In this case you’d be motivated to go soon because you won’t save any money by waiting, so these sooner flights begin to fill up. Now, what if the tickets for August were $800, for September they were $700, and for October they were $600? Well, of course you’d be motivated to wait and book your October trip now. That would mean that the August flight would go with empty seats, which is not what the airlines want at all.
Your best strategy
We’ve discussed before that the cheapest flights for any non-holiday periods are generally between 4 and 6 weeks before the departure date. So wait until then and you’ll get the best deal. It can be stressful to plan a big trip when you don’t have the ticket yet, with the fear that the price will go up instead of down, and that’s exactly what the airlines are counting on.
People who have a low tolerance for uncertainty will just buy a ticket early at a high price, so the airlines make more money on those people. You’ll also notice that if the price goes down after you’ve booked your ticket you usually have to cancel and rebook in order to get the lower price, meaning that you’ll usually be on the hook for a $100 change fee in addition to the hassle.
If you can deal with the stress you’ll be much better off waiting until 6 weeks before the departure, and then buying the ticket the moment you see prices go down at all. By 4 weeks out if you don’t see prices dropping at all, just buy the best deal possible. The chances of having to pay more are actually very low, so this is how savvy travelers book.